Category Archives: Power Market Analysis

Connection Capability Assessment in the LRP I

Power Advisory LLC Senior Consultant Travis Lusney has an editorial in the new edition of IPPSO FACTO, an Ontario electricity sector magazine published by the Association of Power Producers of Ontario (APPrO).

The editorial discusses the drawbacks in the current approach to assessing connection capability in the LRP I process and provides an outline of an alternative pre-submission connection assessment approach.  The alternative approach is based on feedback provided by Power Advisory at the December 2, 2014 Qualified Applicant consultation meeting sponsored by the OPA.

Please click here to read the full editorial.

Power Advisory forecast of prices for ISO-NE’s forthcoming Forward Capacity Auction (FCA) #9 now available

Power Advisory has just finalized our forecast of prices in ISO-NE’s forthcoming Forward Capacity Auction (FCA) #9. Reflecting tightening conditions in the ISO-NE forward capacity market, the implementation of a sloped demand curve, and ISO-NE’s Pay for Performance program, Power Advisory is projecting FCA #9 to clear at the highest prices achieved to date. Adding to the strength shown in FCA #8, a sloped demand curve contributes greater stability to the market. In a market which is relatively tight, this limits the range of plausible prices at which the market will clear.

An indicative forecast follows. Power Advisory has an expanded and more refined forecast which we are offering for a fee. Please contact John Dalton at 978 369-2465 or jdalton@poweradvisoryllc.com.

John Dalton published in Public Utilities Fortnightly

John Dalton recently published an article in Public Utilities Fortnightly on competitive procurement for transmission facilities, focusing in particular on PJM’s experience with the competitive procurement process for the Artificial Island Area in New Jersey.

Planning vs Partiality – A Case Study from PJM on competitive procurement of regional transmission under FERC Order 1000

Power Advisory’s team has extensive experience with the design, evaluation and participation in competitive procurement processes for transmission facilities.   This includes work: (1) testifying regarding how to enhance the competitive tension in the competitive procurement process under development in Alberta; (2) assisting the Ontario Energy Board with the development of its competitive process for the designation of transmission developers; and (3) reviewing for a number of clients the experience in Texas with Competitive Renewable Energy Zones and in the UK with the application of competitive procurement for transmission facilities to connect offshore wind projects.

John Dalton Presents Future Wind Costs at CanWEA 2014 Conference

On October 28th, 2014 Power Advisory LLC President John Dalton presented at the CanWEA 2014 Conference.  The presentation provided evidence regarding future declines in the cost of wind including recent experience with cost of wind energy and future cost reductions.

For a copy of the presentation please visit our reports page. 

Power Advisory hosts information and strategy session on the possibility of a Capacity Market in Ontario

Power Advisory LLC recently hosted an information and strategy session to discuss the possibility of a Capacity Market being developed in Ontario.  The goal of the session was to share Power Advisory’s collective experience and knowledge on Capacity Markets and to provide an opportunity for our clients to consider an organized position heading into the IESO stakeholder engagement.  The session topics included:

  • IESO Stakeholder Engagement plans and potential timelines
  • Objectives of Capacity Markets and experience in North America
  • Potential for a Capacity Market in Ontario and issues to address
  • Potential impacts on OPA contracts
  • Related issues and potential next steps

For more information on Power Advisory’s expertise in Capacity Markets or the IESO stakeholder engagement please feel free to contact us 

Long-term Transmission Capital Expenditure Forecast for Alberta

Power Advisory experts have recently reviewed the 2013 Long-Term Transmission Plan (2013 LTP) for Alberta as published by the Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO).  Based on our review we have developed a comprehensive forecast of Capital Expenditures over the planning time period (2014-2032).  The forecast includes an estimate of Development Capital Expenditures by project and region over the three time periods considered in the 2013 LTP.  Power Advisory has also estimated Capital Expenditures for General Plant and Sustainment based on the growth expectations of Alberta’s transmission rate base.  The analysis provides a detailed view of the long term trend for capital investment in Alberta’s transmission system and includes an alternative scenario for lower economic growth and oil sand development.

Future customer bill costs in Ontario

Power Advisory recently completed analysis showing that the cost of energy from solar, wind and bioenergy (i.e. non-hydro renewables) currently accounts for 9 % of an average customer bill.  The analysis expects the portion of non-hydro renewables to increase to 16% of an average customer bill in 10 years time and indicates that the rise in energy costs in Ontario is due to many factors that are not influenced by the increase of non-hydro renewables in Ontario’s supply mix.

See article in Globe and Mail and Toronto Star for more details.